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EUR/USD : Update Cylindrical study

Publié le 20 Août 2008, 03:39am

Catégories : #FOREX

              EUR / USD : Cylindrical study

Our scenarios fall 14 figures have worked well:
The day after our announcement, the European currency has confirmed our strategy to double top 'W'
to anticipate a drastic drop of more than ten figures. The EUR / USD has since dropped the level of 1.6036
Treaty meeting on July 15 than 1.4630 early this week.

This net decline of movement should be traced:
Our scenario calls for short-term for a bullish retracement with the presence of a beautiful morning star pattern on a daily chart.
We maintain our strategy basic trend downward in the medium and long term. Taking into account the latest wave of declines, our goals Bulls calculated according to the Fibonacci ratios become: 1.4980, 1.5170, 1.5340 and 1.5500. The point on 1.5280 level is a strong resistance initiated in early March 2008 as you could see on the graph enclosed. This trend right through the bottom of the meetings of March 11, May 8 and June 13.  Once our goal favorite bull reached on the level of 1.5280, EUR / USD could reverse and come back to reach our next target on the level of 1.50. This represents the ratio of 0,618 Fibonacci movement early in our new strategy upward in the very short term.

A favourable context of anticipation:
Our scenarios mid-July of renewed dollar rebounds and indices with our anticipation of a fall of about 40 dollars on oil would anticipate pursuing our strategies correlated: rising shares in the medium term, further bursting of the bubble on raw materials initiated by a shock of demand on oil, fall of Gold, tight rate spread USA and Europe in the line of our "stoptrichet.com", in turn slowing of inflation, strong rebound in the dollar index drops in the euro. Our short-term strategy on the U.S. indices would anticipate a break correlated with the rebound in the EUR / USD and Light Crude Oil once reached our ultimate goal.

The limits of our strategy:
A rebound beyond the level of 1.5280 would allow the European currency to achieve its objectives cited above, without putting in question our bearish scenarios in the medium and long term. Only one passage of the EUR / USD beyond the level of 1.6050 invalidate these expectations. Conversely, the breakdown in the very short term the declining level of 1.4600, close to our previous goal perfectly precedent would impair our strategy rebound in danger.

Slide in the very short term the currency up to the level of 1.47 would not jeopardise our strategy rebound

Our goal bearish medium-term once made this rebound:
A confirmed break in the very short term level of 1.4600 invalidate any prior rebound and allow the currency to achieve our goal bearish medium-term located on the level of 1.4360. This represents a ratio of 0,382 last upward movement of the currency since November 2005 on the level of 1.1641. This objective 1.44 coîncide also with the right support initiated in February 2002 and the bottom of meetings from January 2008.

Louis-Serge Real del Sarte
European director at Global Equities

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