EURO STOXX BANKS Index : New Cylindrical strategy
| Our strategy last February appears to end: |
Our strategy sent in early February on the Eurostoxx Bank Index advocated for a down cycle with a last movement of a decreasing level of 390 to 285. the index climbed back on the level of 372 at the end of April this year to reach the level of 244 this summer.
The banking index should reverse its trend:
A picture of the graph attached, the index moving in a large channel whose pillars are located on levels of 513 to point resistance point and 244 in support. The bearish movement initiated by the index on May 14, 2007 when the latter was worth 492 and dealt its highest level in history, should end.
Multiple media to the rescue of banking:
Indeed, we have just reached a point of major support to coincide with the lower channel boundary and that is exactly the Fibonacci ratio of 0.75 five years of the increase in the index. The Eurostoxx Bank index was trading 157 in October 2002 and reached the level of 492 in May 2007.
The Bullish's objectives:
Our scenario can anticipate a major turning point at this stage. The short-term objectives are located on levels of 295, 310, 325 and 341 calculated on the basis of bearish movement from May to July 2008. The objectives bullish in the medium term are located on levels of 306 and 338, then 360 our key objective. the following objectives are on the levels of 400 and 430. Our goal lighthouse located on the level of 360 corresponds to a straight line trend initiated in August 2000. This is also the Fibonacci ratio 0.50 of the most powerful to track a year of decline in banking.
A market correlated:
Our strategy could be reinforced by the continued rebound in the dollar index, our scenario increase on future actions just after traced to the rise in the Light Crude Oil, Gold and EUR / USD to conduct a technical pause after be unscrewed to 36 dollars on oil and 14 figures on the EURO.
The bad news already in progress:
The fact that analysts renowned degrade all bank would in terms of timing graphically to imagine that these opinions are already incorporated into classes. Some banks during begging today represent real investment opportunities in terms of merger and the market has rarely been so fluid in terms of assets under management.
The limits of our strategy:
A break in the very short term level of 258 would put at risk our scenario even invalidate definitely below the level of 230.
Louis-Serge Real del Sarte
European Director at Global Equities