| Our rebound scenario from 3th last September has been short-lived: |
Our rebound scenario from 3 th last September has been short-lived. "A break in the threshold of 1.4350 put our scenario of short-term rebound in danger, even invalidate below the 1.4300 level before reaching our bearish goals ..... located on the levels of 1.4030 and 1.3400". The EUR / USD has broken its support and confirmed our first bearish target. It should, however, at this stage to review the chart attached to anticipate some conclusions.
A technical profile proprice the rebound:
The Euro against Dollar wa strading 1.6040 level this summer. Currently on a level of 1.3900, the European currency is again close to a key located on the level of 1.3850. This support, which could reverse the trend, represents the major ratio of 0.50 calculated on the Fibonacci progression of the European currency over the past three years. This coincides with the support of our median Cylindrical initiated in April 2002. Moreover, the EUR / USD has been evolving since March 2000 in a wide corridor bullish materialized in orange on the chart enclosed. The pillars of this powerful chanel are located on the levels of 1.3810 to 1.6630. The absence in the very short term contained graphic rollover according to the model Muné Hisa Homma would anticipate the continuation of the euro's fall against dollar to go test these supports located between 1.3850 and 1.3800.
The currency European Committee end an Elliot wave:
The progression of the European currency from its lowest level in history in October 2000 on the level of 0.8228 to reach its highest level in history to double top, in April and July last on the level of 1.6034, was corrected in a single wave 'A' downward. The Elliottiste decomposition could anticipate a bounce movement wave 'B' to reach a ratio of Fibonacci located on the level at 1.47 and then resume a downward movement in wave 'C' and achieve our ultimate goal of decline in the medium term the level of 1.2740.
The short-term rebound's targets:
The severe decline in only two months, up to twenty-one 'figures', has not been traced. Just as the 'trees did not go up to heaven', it is also true for collapsing by using the theory of DOW. The assumption that the EUR / USD could address the decline in the level of 1.3850, the objectives of tracing short term would be located on the levels of 1.4390, 1.4680, 1.4940, 1.5200 and 1.5490.
The interconnectedness of markets in support of our scenario:
Many Asian central banks defend their currencies against the resumption of the dollar. The dollar index deserve to breathe for a technical pause at this stage have almost reached our goal bull. This technique would decline mechanically tracing the bull of the EUR / USD. Our anticipation of a rebound of Light Crude Oil on our goal located on the level of $ 100 also plead in this direction.
Our strategy is clearly downward in the medium and long term:
Our objectives would be located bearish on the levels of 1.3320 and 1.2740. Those levels represent the 0.618 and 0.75 ratios from Fibonacci calculated on the progress of the currency over last three years.
The limits of our strategy:
Although the currency on the euro is: 'The trend is my friend', we can not, in fact, we support the immediate figures on conventional techniques of turning the very short term. A break in the threshold of 1.3850 put our scenario of short-term rebound in danger, even invalidate below the 1.3800 level before reaching our goals bearish listed above.