Threat of a bearish cycle on equities
The effects of a third oil shock:
It is clear that our scenarios on European indices and
oil are long-fire. The remarks of Mr Trichet last Thursday
announcing a probable rise in interest rates of the Central Bank
European next month to curb inflation have revived the
European currency. For mechanical effect, the dollar has served bending
propeller oil. We can not keep the governor sole
responsible for this volatility although we perceive today
the negative aspect of a speech dissonance between the Fed and
ECB. Although it has been the trigger, the weak dollar has been
supported by the sharp rise in unemployment in the USA.
Oil: The New Deal
This new increase of oil is historic in its magnitude in such a short
duration. This new outbreak reflects the structural increase
the demand in Asia and most importantly, has been fuelled by threats barely
Friday veiled Israeli strikes against Iran. The Minister of
Transport of the Hebrew state has ruled an inevitable attack
his country against Iranian nuclear sites. We were discussing this
risk to the end of 2008 in our study on oil
as one of exogenous factors likely to anihiler any analysis
on a reliable technical Light Crude changing vertical.
A dazzling own rebound to remain in the annals:
The Crude has indeed rebounded, rising 121.60 level than
139.12 to close at $ 138.54 an increase of 18 ever seen
$ 24 hours. Following our study on the downward
oil of 22 last May, established a Crude above $ 135
then confirmed the sharp correction of its dizzying climb,
to lose in two weeks prsè fourteen dollars, rising to
ten sessions 135.09 $ 121.61 $ treaty Thursday, June 5.
The correction could become a consolidation:
The announcement of additional provisions related to subprimes by new banks,
recapitalization in the amount Astronomical a U.S. bank
many annalyses Cassandra favor of a $ 140 oil,
even $ 200 institutions recognized OPEC sees no need
to increase its production at this stage, offsetting the erosion
dollar became a currency monkey, the G8 meeting this weekend in Japan
reconnaîssant its impotence in the face of the outbreak of the barrel, all elements
supported the advent of a new danger bearish on the indices.
The Eurostoxx has corrected the last wave of increase in the level of 3418
than in 3879. Nevertheless, as we detail in our studies
28 May this year, breaking levels in 3600 sounded the alert.
Recall the risk of downward mentioned:
"The sword of Damocles in people's minds:
The training course over the medium term reminiscent of a head-shoulder with a shoulder first formed in 2006, the head fitted with its highest Treaty to 4608 in summer 2007 and the formation of the second shoulder in 2008 reinforced our bullish scenario underway. The line of neck not break subject to validate this pattern black lies on the level of 3377. A break of this level would lead to the index of medium-term objectives located on the levels of 3226 and 2902. A first signal would result in a passage below the level of 3600, the ratio is close to 0,618 correction last two months of rising stock markets. "
Last chance to rebound salutary:
Unless a magic wand at the beginning of the week
to rebound strongly on indexes correlated with
a marked decline of oil and make double bottoms
on the levels of 3418 on eurostoxx and 4417 on the CAC,
we could see the famous black scenario already mentioned
damoclès a sword above and that it was not remember our
favorite scenario. : A head-shoulder three years formed after a cycle
five years of rising to anticipate this cycle
consolidation to achieve the level of 3850 on the CAC and.
To do so would confirm a shift in the levels of 4405
on the CAC and 3418 on the Eurostoxx.